12/27/2022 0 Comments Hurricane track modelThe result shows that this ensemble prediction method leads to an improvement in the hurricane track forecasts. The method generates 15 ensemble members for each hurricane. Only the temperature and wind fields are perturbed with the order proportional to the respective observational error. The hurricane environment and structure perturbations can be generated by implementing EOF analysis to the differences between forecasts starting from regular analysis and randomly perturbed analysis. The initial position of the hurricane is perturbed by displacing its original position 50 km equally toward the north, south, east, and west directions. The method is based on the premise that (a) model perturbation grows linearly during the first few days of model integration, and (b) in order to make a complete set of ensemble perturbations of hurricane forecasts, both hurricane initial position and its structure and environment need to be perturbed. In this study, an ensemble perturbation method is applied for hurricane track predictions using the Florida State University’s Global Spectral Model with horizontal spectral resolution of T63 and 14 vertical levels. This paper focuses on an ensemble forecast methodology for the hurricane track forecast procedure. The ensemble technique is becoming increasingly popular for the middle-latitude weather forecasts. ABSTRACT Because of the initial data uncertainties, it is inevitable that operational hurricane track forecasting practice would, in the future, follow an ensemble forecast approach.
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